Friday, March 27, 2009

Why Alberta oilsands productions have halted in 2009

Alberta oilsands projects have halted in 2009


The global financial crisis and the drop in oil prices to below $40 US per barrel has served a double whammy to the Alberta oil sands companies. Not only is the price of US $40 oil not as profitable for the Alberta oilsands companies but the global financial crisis is also reducing the available money for these companies to hire more labour and produce more oil. So falling commodity prices and weak credit markets make for a strong reason why Alberta oilsands projects have halted in 2009. The effects of the global financial crisis can also be seen in weaker demand for oil as more and more people are saving money in uncertain times. Less vacations means less Alberta oilsands development as well. The big Alberta oilsands companies such as Suncor, BA Energy and Husky energy will all see very weak 4th quarter 2008 earnings and this will dictate their strategy for 2009. We have already seen more than 10 billion of oilsands production halted and more announcements are expected to come.

Alberta oilsands companies cutting dividends


Alberta oilsands companies such as Suncor have cut their regular dividend payment to their shareholders. Suncor, one of the large Alberta oilsands companies, pays quarterly dividends to its shareholders. Investors have relied on the steady and safe return provided by companies such as Suncor who pay their dividends on a regular basis. This has been the main reason why people invest in oil sands trust which is mandated by their shareholder agreement to pay a specified amount of its income as dividends or automatic reinvestment shares. However as hard times have hit the global financial markets and the banks have stopped lending and cut credit, Alberta oilsands companies such as Suncor have had to take measures to conserve their cash. Conservative measures taken now rather than when the cash reserves run out is what Alberta oilsand companies are planning on as they try to survive the financial crisis. Will cutting dividends in the short term help these Alberta oilsands companies? Yes and No maybe the answer because if the financial crisis is short then we can expect the cash reserves to be improved soon. But if the financial crisis lasts for a few years then we can expect some bankruptcies to occur as cash strapped companies must close their doors.

Turn around time for Alberta oilsands projects


When will the turn around be for the Alberta oilsands projects. One year, two years or more is the question investors are demanding when they plan their investments in the Alberta oilsands. While the big Alberta oilsands projects have been postponed and not cancelled, the smaller Alberta oilsands projects have been cancelled. The big companies such as Suncor can wait out a slow period of growth by holding off for a year or more. In times of slow growth or negative growth we can expect some consolidation in the industry. The turn around time for the Alberta oilsands projects is expected to be 24 months. This coincides with the end of 2010 and when the global financial crisis is expected to improve and credit will once again be normal. We can expect Alberta oilsands projects to be announced again before the credit fully turns around. Maybe in early 2010 we will expect the activity in Alberta oilsands to be robust and more projects announced to be started.

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Thursday, March 19, 2009

Alberta royalty cuts: will it help the oil companies?

Why is Alberta cutting it’s royalties?


The Alberta Government just announced their policy change in March 2009 for the Alberta Oil sands royalty revenues. The Alberta government has decided to give Alberta oil sands companies a break in 2009 due to the financial crisis and drop their oilsands royalties significantly for any new activity that will be done in 2009. What this means is that any Alberta oilsands companies willing to invest in their existing oilsands projects and thus create new jobs in Alberta will be able to benefit from paying less royalty to the Alberta government for the oil that they produce. There is of course a cap on the amount of the cut and it only applies to a certain amount of oil produced as well as the time period. Time is of the essence in the Alberta royalties cuts and Oilsands companies need to move fast in order to benefit from this revenue boosting cut. The main reasons for the royalty reduction in Alberta is the lower revenue that is expected due to the postponement of many major oilsands projects and due to the climbing unemployment rate in the province. The Alberta government is losing revenue anyways and the reduction in royalty split may actually increase its share in a shrinking royalty pie in 2009 and 2010. The other reason is that oil prices that have hit historic highs of $140 US per barrel have fallen to barely profitable levels of $35 US per barrel. At these low US dollar per barrel oil prices the Alberta oilsands companies have postponed any further production to protect their future revenues.

Who will benefit from the Alberta royalties cuts?


So who will really benefit from the Alberta royalties cuts anyways? The Alberta oilsands companies consists of a few major players and lots of smaller companies. The fragmented nature of the oilsands companies is the reason why it is so hard to control the revenue that the Alberta government hopes to achieve. The global financial crisis has caused a reduction in the available capital to all Alberta oilsands companies both big and small. This is the real reason behind the many postponements of major oilsands projects and why we may continue to see very little oilsands activities despite the Alberta royalties cut. The stimulus for the cuts is giving the Alberta oilsands companies more future revenue but as you can see this misses the point of why they have reduced their development in the first place. This is especially true of the smaller oilsands companies in Alberta as they do not have the financial reserves that the bigger players such as Suncor has. In the current global financial crisis we can expect the big players such as Suncor, Husky Energy, or BA Energy benefit from the Royalties cuts the most. The smaller players will have to sit on the sidelines waiting for the banks to start lending again before taking part in any revenue gains as a result of Alberta royalties cuts.

Alberta oil company activity in 2009 and beyond


What will happen in 2009 for Alberta oilsands companies and the industry? This is a question mark for everyone including this writer of course but we can definitely put out our opinions. One of the main factors for any growth in the Alberta oilsands development in 2009 is the ability of the global financial crisis to stabilize. This is by far the most important factor in determining whether we will see an increase in Alberta oilsands companies investments. With an increase in lending activity we should start to see the large Alberta oilsands companies start to perhaps consolidate by buying smaller oilsands firms. This consolidation will happen at good prices not seen for some time as the smaller oilsands companies values have decreased dramatically with the fall in US oil prices to $35 per barrel. The second important factor is the US price per barrel of oil and what price this will stabilize at. It is important for US oil prices to maintain a level of $50 or more. This level of US price of $50 will allow for the profitable development of new projects without over production causing abnormally high costs. The US price per barrel of oil should not be more than $100 or else this will have an adverse affect on the industry.

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Friday, March 6, 2009

Alberta slashes Alberta Oil Sands Royalty

Alberta Government reveals Royalty Slashing


The worsening financial crisis has hurt many industries including the Alberta Oil Sands and their related companies. The recent postponing of many of the billion dollar projects by companies including Suncor, Husky Energy, BA Energy, and Petro Canada to name a few are forcing Alberta politicians to review their Royalty policy. A recent shift in their Alberta Oil Sands Royalty from 15% - 20% down to 5% shows how much the Alberta Government is willing to give in order to save jobs in Alberta. Read more about this online at Financial Post http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1349060. The Alberta Government is facing a dire deficit of more than 1 billion dollars, its first deficit for more than 10 years. Despite the recent increase in the percentage of Royalty payments in 2008 when oil price per barrel was well over $100, the Alberta Government is in a worst position if no new jobs are created. With fewer oil wells as a result of a postponement in projects, royalty slashing is the only alternative in creating the right environment for Alberta Oilsands companies to continue to invest in Alberta rather than in other areas. The new royalty slashing plan in Alberta applies to 5% of the first 500,000 barrels of oil in the next year or 500 million cubic feet of natural gas.

Alberta Oilsands Royalty rates and the Alberta Oilsands Companies


The royalty rates charged by the Alberta Government allow it to share in the profits of Alberta oil sands companies. When the economy is doing well, Alberta oil sands companies will continue to invest despite a high royalty payment to the Alberta Government. As long as profits remain high, and they were at record levels of a few billion dollars per quarter, everyone will remain in business. However, the global financial crisis has created a bad environment for the Alberta oil sands companies. In a global financial crisis, it is impossible to borrow money from any bank. The major banks around the world provide the credit facilities required to fund Alberta oil sands companies operations and lines of credit facilities to operate efficiently. Without the support of the global financial system, the Alberta Oilsands companies run a high risk of running out of needed capital and going bankrupt from a lack of financial resources. While the big companies such as Suncor have large financial reserves, it is still unlikely to invest in times that are this uncertain. The royalty rates are a financial incentive to provide Alberta Oil Sands companies to continue to take risk despite the possibility of lower financial support.

Will the Royalty reduction work?


The beginning of 2009 has already seen a decrease of 27% in drilling activity from the major Alberta oil sands companies. This drastic reduction in activity means a drastic reduction in employment and an increase in unemployment for the province of Alberta. A royalty reduction will provide the financial incentive for Alberta oil sands companies to take the risk now to invest rather than wait a year and have to pay a larger percentage of their profits to Alberta oilsands royalty payments. But arguments of whether this will work include the financial stability of the Alberta oil sands companies have not improved. Without providing the financial stability taken away as a result of a weakening in the global major banks, the small Alberta oil and gas companies are still not able to make any new investments despite having a lower royalty. The main benefits of this royalty reduction would actually to go larger producers who have the financial reserves to produce even more and will be able to take advantage of a saving in royalty payments.

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Alberta Oil Sands Companies: Suncor Energy

Suncor develops Alberta Oilsands in the Athabasca Region


Suncor Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company with large holdings in the Alberta Athabasca region. The company was founded in 1967 and currently employs more than 6,500 employees. Being an integrated energy company, Suncor has large holdings in the Alberta Oilsands Athabasca region, explores, produces and develops natural gas, has downstream operations in Ontario and Colorado that market the company’s refined products. In addition to it’s oil and natural gas, Suncor also has investments in renewable energy including wind power farms and Suncor’s ethanol facility, a known biofuel, in Ontario. Though its main focus is on the development of the Alberta Oilsands and is one of the first Alberta Oilsands companies to locate in the Athabasca region.

Suncor and Alberta Oilsands production


Suncor Energy Inc. main focus is Alberta Oilsands production. The Alberta Oilsands is an oil rich area that has more commercially viable oil than anywhere in the world and the reserves are only getting larger with improvements in technology. Suncor has been developing its Alberta Oilsands since 1967 and continues to be one of the biggest Alberta Oil sands companies in the area. By recovering oil, known as bitumen, from the oil sands and refining it to produce products that include feedstock and diesel fuel, Suncor provides an economically viable product that is in high demand around the world. The two methods that Suncor uses to recover oil from the Alberta oil sands is surface mining and in-situ (similar to conventional oilwell production). Through advances in Alberta oilsands technology and computers and engineering techniques, the current proven reserves in Canada’s Alberta Athabasca region is only second to Saudi Arabia. However, our potential reserves given an improvement in the technology in the future are far in excess of anywhere else in the world.

Suncor Energy Inc.on the NYSE and TSX: SU


Trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX, and the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE, under the symbol SU, Suncor is a global energy company with access to private capital. Suncor has a dividend reinvestment option that allows current shareholders to easily and cost effectively reinvest their regular quarterly dividends into more shares of Suncor. The stock price of Suncor hit an all time high in 2008 of $73. With the current fall in oil prices, Suncor has fallen back to its 2004 and 2005 price range of $20 to $30 per share. The value of Suncor is highly dependent on the price of oil and the world demand for oil products. While the oil prices remain in the range of $30 - $40, the price of Suncor and other Alberta oil sands companies including BA Energy, Husky Energy, and Petro Canada will all be affected by the weakness in the commodity price. When the price of oil peaked at $140 per barrel we saw the high reach $73 per share so there is a large range of share prices in the current market. With global demand expected to continue to be robust and after the financial crisis is passed, we expect to see another jump in the price per barrel of oil. While alternative energy such as windpower, biofuel, and solar panel are still in its infancy, we can also continue to expect the reliable consumption of oil to continue.

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Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Alberta Oilsands Companies Feature: Husky Energy

Husky Energy and the Alberta Oilsands

Husky Energy is an integrated energy and energy related company. Incorporated in Calgary, Alberta, Husky Energy has operations all across Canada. Vertically integrated oil company with a listing on the TSX: HSE, Husky Energy is a developer, an integrator, and a retail seller of oil. Husky Energy is a large player in the Alberta Oilsands in Northern Alberta. Husky energy has a 100 percent interest in oil sands leases east of Kearl Lake, about 60 kilometers northeast of Ft. McMurray. The company’s website is www.huskyenergy.com.

BP Energy and Husky Energy

In December 2007, BP Energy acquired half share in Sunrise field in Northern Alberta, operated by Husky Energy. The deal will have Husky acquire a half share of BP’s Toledo oil refinery in Ohio US. This joint venture will form an integrated North American oil sands business. A 50/50 joint venture will be independently operated and developed. BP’s purchase of Husky’s Sunrise project gives BP a bigger stake in the Alberta oil sands market. The Sunrise oil sands field is expected to have its first production of bitumen in 2010 with up to 200,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) within 10 years. The total production cycles is expected to last 40 years. Husky’s Sunrise projects is located in the Athabasca oil sands region in the north-eastern part of Alberta. The joint venture gives Husky an integrated oil sands venture with upstream and downstream businesses. BP is one of the world’s largest oil and gas companies with operations in 100 countries over six continents.

Husky Energy and Husky Market and Mohawk Gas

Husky Energy operates retail gas stations and a retail restaurant. Its own brand of gas stations, Husky Gas has been around for more than a decade in the Canadian market. Husky Energy has teamed up with CAA, the Canadian Automobile Association, to collect CAA points on every fill up of gas. The other retail outlets at certain Husky gas stations include the convenience store Husky Market and the restaurant Husky House. Very well known in the Western Canadian Provinces, the Husky Energy brand is becoming a bigger player in the retail space. Husky Energy has also recently purchased Mohawk Gas and added their brand to its own. Consumers who visit a Mohawk Gas are now filling up their cars with a Husky Energy product and can collect CAA points along with their purchases. Currently Husky has more than 500 retail locations which make it the third largest retail oil and gas company in Canada.

Recent News with Husky Energy

Husky Energy follows other Alberta Oilsands companies in slowing its production in the Alberta oilsands for 2009. Husky Energy has decreased its investment from $300 million in 2008 to $65 million for 2009. While this is a strategic move in the current low US oil price environment, Husky Energy has not commented on whether it is pulling out of the Alberta oilsands market. Husky did say they are continuing with the Sunrise oil sands project, located about 60 kms northeast of Ft. McMurray, Alberta. BP and Husky expect costs to continue come down in the Alberta Oilsands. The Sunrise project is at the pre-engineering stage where its optimal design is being assessed. Other companies that have announced slowdowns in 2009 include Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Statoil ASA, ConocoPhillips, Petro-Canada and Suncor Energy Inc.

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